North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Outer Size and Structure Remain Unchanged by the Late Twenty-First Century

Abstract There is a lack of consensus on whether North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) outer size and structure (i.e., change in winds with increasing radius from the TC) will differ by late twenty-first century. Hence, this work seeks to examine TC wind field century using multiple simulations under CMIP3 SRES A1B CMIP5 RCP4.5 scenarios. Specifically, our analysis examines data GFDL High-Resolution Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution model (HiFLOR) two versions hurricane downscaling climate output. Our results show that projected remain unchanged within nearly all HiFLOR simulations. Moreover, no significant regional differences exist most No changes between control late-twenty-first-century over storm life cycle For simulation shows decreases size, are attributed reductions lifetime growth rates. The absence among consistent process controls theoretical upper bound Rhines scaling), which thermodynamically invariant. However, complete for many these conclusions suggests nontrivial uncertainty results.